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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-16 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 135.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 03:28:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-16 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-06-16 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.6, -134.2 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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