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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 853 FOPZ13 KNHC 150857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 10.1, -131.8 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 902 WTPZ33 KNHC 150857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 131.8W ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 131.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown and turn toward the west by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 901 WTPZ23 KNHC 150857 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 904 WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 26 kt. Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at 245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in agreement with the multi-model consensus. The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that convection has dissipated again near the center, without another resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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