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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 549 WTPZ33 KNHC 160235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 134.2W ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 134.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 134.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-15 22:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:28:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-06-15 22:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152039 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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