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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-24 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242053 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 10(32) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 6(35) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) 1(27) X(27) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-24 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 83.0W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-24 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-19 14:05:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191205 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become significantly better organized overnight. The low-level center is located near the western edge of the convection, but the system has enough organization to be declared a tropical cyclone. Therefore, advisories are being initiated at this time. The system appears to be near tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system appears more tropical than subtropical since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore, it has been designated a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data later this morning should provide a better assessment of the system's intensity. The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28 degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72 hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity consensus models. The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. As a result, little net motion is expected through tonight. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek. As the ridge slides eastward later this week, the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed. This motion will bring the system close to Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should closely monitor the progress of the cyclone. The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1200Z 25.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Graphics
2020-10-19 13:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 11:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 11:56:03 GMT
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