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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-11-06 03:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-06 00:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 16.0, -87.8 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 21A

2020-11-06 00:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 87.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast during the next several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near Cuba on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) over water, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical storm strength on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics

2020-11-06 00:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 23:30:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:24:44 GMT

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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics

2020-11-05 22:11:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression eta

 

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