je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 15:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
eta
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being maintained as a tropical depression at this time. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution, there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in 60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 051450 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 9(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 3(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 15.1, -87.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
eta
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 87.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [228] [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] [242] [243] [244] [245] [246] [247] next »