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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory. Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours. Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 25.7, -115.7 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 115.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 115.7 West. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected overnight and on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low overnight. The remnant low is then expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-15 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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