je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight for portions of these areas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that, Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 09:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 08:55:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 09:24:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
eta
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-05 09:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050852 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-05 09:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 270 FONT14 KNHC 050852 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 3(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 3(27) 2(29) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 09:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 14.5, -87.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
eta
Sites : [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] [242] [243] [244] [245] [246] [247] [248] next »