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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 04:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-08 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further assess whether additional weakening has occurred. Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory. Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-10-08 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 04:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH DRY AIR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.8 with movement S at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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