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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 10:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 08:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 08:45:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-08 10:44:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080843 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert was very close to becoming a remnant low overnight. A recent burst of deep convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low-level center was sufficient to keep Norbert as a tropical depression for this advisory. Water vapor imagery indicates the depression is still battling dry mid-level air on the northern periphery of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a 04 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed max winds of 25 kt in the southwest quadrant of Norbert. Norbert is presently drifting east-southeastward under weak steering currents, and the cyclone may continue meandering erratically for the next 6-12 h. Then, Norbert is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or westward through 48 h. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Norbert, which should steer the system northwestward at a slightly faster speed. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one based on the guidance consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Although drier mid-level air continues to impinge on the northern side of Norbert's circulation, the depression remains in an otherwise favorable environment of high oceanic heat content and light vertical wind shear. If Norbert can survive the slight increase in deep-layer shear depicted by the SHIPS guidance during the next 24 h, improving environmental conditions thereafter could allow Norbert to at least remain a depression for several days. Alternatively, moderate shear and additional dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low at almost any time. The NHC intensity forecast assumes the first scenario and keeps Norbert as a 25-30 kt depression for the next several days. By 96-120 h, GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection as it moves into a drier mid-level environment. Thus, the official forecast depicts a transition to remnant low status by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.2N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-08 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080842 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.3 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.3W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little movement is expected today, with a west-southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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