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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-14 10:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Rene was located near 27.4, -48.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 48.3W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-14 04:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:51:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:51:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 04:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140249 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon. As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-14 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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