je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-14 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:01:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:01:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
twenty
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 10:59:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140859 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model tracks. Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
twenty
tropical
Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 735 FONT13 KNHC 140849 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 727 WTNT43 KNHC 140849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Rene continues to produce just enough deep convection to keep it from degenerating to a remnant low. However, it is expected to degenerate later today due to the ongoing impact of strong west-northwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment. The initial intensity and the intensity forecast, which call for dissipation by 60 h, are unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/3. The shallow cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the low-level flow by 12-24 hours and continue on that general motion until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 140849 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] [298] [299] [300] [301] [302] [303] [304] [305] [306] [307] [308] [309] [310] next »