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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 131455 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131455 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to- moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5. There are two main points that suggest this forecast could potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological mean. The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA and HCCA solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-13 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics

2020-09-13 11:08:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:08:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:32:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-09-13 10:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 404 WTNT43 KNHC 130858 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time, with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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