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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-09-13 10:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 130858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-13 10:58:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Rene was located near 26.2, -47.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-13 10:58:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 130858 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 47.1W ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected later today, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-13 10:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 46.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130853 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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