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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-13 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:48:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:45:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Twenty was located near 11.9, -34.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 34.6W ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a hurricane in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130247 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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