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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-12 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Twenty was located near 11.4, -33.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-12 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 33.5W ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-12 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 122042 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-12 22:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122041 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 33.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-09-12 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 122034 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day 5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner. Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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