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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-08-21 13:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 84.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-21 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 08:51:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 09:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-21 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 210849 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 2(31) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 2(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 2(38) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 5(39) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 8(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) X(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) X(36) X(36) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SABA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-21 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 814 WTNT43 KNHC 210849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Tropical Depression Thirteen remains very disorganized this morning. The associated convection is elongated from northwest to southeast, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern end of the convective area. Additionally, satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the mid-level center is located several hundred miles to the southeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data suggested the possibility that the system was an open wave. However, the currently available data is ambiguous on whether the system still has a closed circulation, so it will be maintained as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy through about 96 h. A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After that, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Depression Thirteen may interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is also forecast to be in the Gulf by that time, with the result of these things being a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest. The track guidance has shifted southward since the last advisory, with the UKMET shifting far enough to the south that it takes the system over the Caribbean south of Cuba. The new forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF model from 24-72 h. The intensity forecast remains low confidence. The separation between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so. The dynamical models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish. However, the system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track. The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to Tropical Depression Fourteen. The possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it lies a little below the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands later today through Saturday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 17.8N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-21 10:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 21 the center of Thirteen was located near 17.8, -58.5 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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