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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-21 16:56:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center. Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast. The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period, with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios. The structure of the depression aside, the environment still appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2 and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA, HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of 30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to diminish today. 2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 16.6, -84.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 84.1W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula north and west of Cancun to Dzilam. The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla. The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands of Honduras * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 84.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands of Honduras today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-21 16:56:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 211456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 3(38) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 29(43) 6(49) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 10(37) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 10(36) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 8(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 8( 8) 50(58) 10(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 18(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GUANAJA 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-21 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 211455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NICARAGUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 83.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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