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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to modest northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications suggest that the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm threshold. The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it difficult to maintain organized deep convection. The cyclone also appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which does not favor a strengthening system. Therefore, no changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near or just above the intensity consensus. All in all, there is high confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and northwest at times. The system will be slowing down considerably in a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from day 2 to day 5. Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend. Because of the expected slow motion, however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 132034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-13 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.8, -130.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 132034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 130.6W ABOUT 1495 MI...2400 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 130.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, but the depression could become a tropical storm at any time during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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