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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-13 16:52:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 131452 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-13 10:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 08:40:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:31:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-13 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 08:40:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:24:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130839 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days, southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus. The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and these are presumed to be rain-contaminated. The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone will move very little during that time. The official forecast track splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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