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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...STRUGGLING DEPRESSION HEADING WESTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 47.1W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight and this motion is forecast to continue during the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130235 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 130235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-12 22:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 20:43:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 20:43:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-12 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 122042 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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