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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-31 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 142 WTNT42 KNHC 312035 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 Satellite imagery, along with earlier scatterometer data, indicates that the low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as the scatterometer data. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should cause the cyclone to move westward at a faster forward speed for the next 36 h or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest by the end of the period as the depression moves along the southwest side of the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance after 36-48 h, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean showing a more northward motion while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a more westward motion. The official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is a little to the south of the other consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 72 h or so as the cyclone is in a moist environment with light shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast thus calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 h or so and reach hurricane strength in 48-60 h. By the end of the forecast period, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler water and into a drier air mass. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a slower development rate. The official intensity forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and it is possibly conservative given that many of the global models are showing the development of a large and powerful tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.2N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 312034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122021)
2021-08-31 22:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 the center of Twelve was located near 11.2, -21.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 312034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 21.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, and a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-31 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 312034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 21.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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