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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate continues to produce small, sporadic bursts of convection near and to the east of its partially exposed low-level center this afternoon. The cyclone has moved north of the subtropical jet stream that it has been centered under for the past couple of days, so the mid- to upper-level vertical wind shear is beginning to diminish. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes this morning missed Kate's small circulation. The current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is moving a little faster to the north, or 360/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. Kate is expected to begin moving north-northwestward tonight as a mid-level ridge builds to the east and northeast of the cyclone. This general motion should continue through early Thursday, before an approaching mid- to upper-level trough begins steering Kate more northward through Friday. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope, remaining close to the multi-model consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging, with mixed signals noted from the various intensity models. On the one hand, satellite imagery indicates the vertical wind shear is obviously diminishing over Kate, and the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs of around 28.5 deg C for the next couple of days. However, the cyclone remains embedded within a dry mid-level environment that is clearly making it difficult for Kate to produce organized convection. The official NHC intensity forecast still shows no explicit intensity change and remains closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVDR aids. However, some short-term intensity fluctuations are certainly possible, which is notable since Kate's intensity is hovering around the tropical depression/storm threshold. By Thursday, Kate will be moving into an even drier, more subsident environment that will make it even more difficult to sustain deep convection. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Kate becoming a remnant low completely devoid of convection by Friday, with dissipation shortly thereafter ahead of an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 24.6N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 291 FONT15 KNHC 312031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Summary for Tropical Depression Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-31 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 24.6, -50.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 312031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...KATE STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 50.9W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-31 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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