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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-24 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241457 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-06-24 16:56:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241456 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-24 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Jun 24 the center of Three-E was located near 10.2, -132.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-06-24 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241456 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 132.9W ABOUT 1615 MI...2605 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-06-24 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 132.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 132.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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