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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-06-27 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-06-27 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 139.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression Boris Graphics

2020-06-26 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 20:33:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 20:33:41 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression boris

 

Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a little farther to the north than indicated in the previous advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the associated convection is currently disorganized due to a combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast follows the general direction of the previous one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-06-26 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

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