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Tropical Depression Dolly Graphics
2020-06-24 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 08:33:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 08:33:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-24 10:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240832 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Dolly Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 Deep convection associated with Dolly has become limited and it is confined to an area well to the east of the exposed center. This degraded structure is because the cyclone is now over very cool 22 degree C waters. ASCAT data from several hours ago indicated that maximum winds have fallen below tropical storm force, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on that data and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. This makes Dolly a tropical depression, and the system is well on its way to becoming a remnant low. Since the depression is headed for even cooler waters, continued weakening is expected and Dolly will likely become a remnant low later today. Dissipation is now expected to occur by 36 hours, but the global models suggest that it could occur even sooner than that. The tropical depression is moving northeastward at 10 kt. A faster northeastward motion on the north side of a subtropical ridge is expected until the system dissipates on Thursday. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 41.7N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 43.1N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0600Z 45.1N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-24 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 348 FONT14 KNHC 240831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dolly (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-24 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jun 24 the center of Dolly was located near 41.7, -59.0 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dolly Public Advisory Number 8
2020-06-24 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 164 WTNT34 KNHC 240831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolly Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 59.0W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolly was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 59.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical later today. The remnant low should then dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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