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Tropical Depression Boris Public Advisory Number 8
2020-06-26 10:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 ...BORIS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WHILE MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 138.5W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 2035 MI...3275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 138.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday afternoon. A turn toward the west is forecast by Friday night, with a westward or west-southwestward motion continuing through Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight and Friday morning. After that time, Boris is forecast to gradual weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Boris Graphics
2020-06-26 10:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 08:48:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 08:48:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-26 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260847 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate shortly after 72 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-26 10:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-26 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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