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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2020-06-25 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-25 16:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago. Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-25 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Jun 25 the center of Three-E was located near 10.8, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 5
2020-06-25 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 136.2W ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1925 MI...3095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn back toward the west forecast Friday or Friday night, Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. After that, the system is forecast to weaken. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-06-25 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251435 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 1500 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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