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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-06-08 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit south of the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions of the Midwest and Great lakes regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-06-08 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 080835 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BATON ROUGE LA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KEESLER AB 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-08 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 the center of Cristobal was located near 31.0, -91.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 27
2020-06-08 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 91.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 91.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a north-northeast motion and a faster forward speed Tuesday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through southwestern Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast widespread river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast LA and southern MS have begun to rise and are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-06-08 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 90.6W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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