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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171447 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models. Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 108.2W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 108.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday, with a turn to the west-northwest forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a hurricane by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 171447 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 5(39) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 3(27) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 1(47) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 1(35) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) X(33) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 1(44) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 171447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-17 16:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Ten was located near 12.9, -44.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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