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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2019-09-12 16:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 14:57:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 15:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-12 16:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 121452 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest the system has likely become better organized since the scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from TAFB/SAB fixes. The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the model consensus. Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend. There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-12 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 16(29) 3(32) X(32) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 8(49) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-12 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 15.9, -111.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.1W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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