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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-30 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Ida has continued to weaken while moving farther inland over west-central Mississippi this afternoon. Recent observations indicate that the stronger winds seen this morning along the northern Gulf coast have now dropped below tropical storm strength, and Ida has become a tropical depression. Additional weakening should occur while Ida moves over northeastern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley during the next 12 to 24 hours. Ida is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the eastern United States by late Wednesday, and it is likely to be absorbed within a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. Ida has turned northeastward and is now moving 020/8 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough approaching Ida from the west should cause the cyclone to move faster toward the northeast over the next couple of days. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a bit better agreement regarding the forward speed of the Ida as it moves across the eastern U.S., and the NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Ida's winds have decreased, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Central and Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. 2. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Ida was located near 32.6, -90.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight. Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf coast should continue to subside through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this evening and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on Ida can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 302037 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302036 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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