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Tropical Depression Six Graphics
2018-08-31 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 20:35:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 21:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-31 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 848 WTNT41 KNHC 312033 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 High resolution satellite images reveal that the disturbance has developed a well-defined circulation with a cyclonically curved convective band near the center, and plenty of showers in the southern semicircle. The surface pressure in the Cabo Verde Island of Santiago dropped to 1005 mb at 1800 UTC as the cyclone passed to its south. In addition, Dvorak numbers are gradually increasing, and now support classifying the system as a tropical depression. The depression is becoming better organized, and it will most likely reach tropical storm status in the next several hours. The environmental conditions are favorable for some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days while the shear is low. Later in the forecast period, the shear is expected to increase, and the SSTs will become marginal halting the strengthing process. The models, primarily the HWRF, are a little less aggressive with the intensity, so the NHC forecast is adjusted slightly downward. Now that the center has formed, we have a better estimate of the initial motion, which is toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is gradually becoming steered by the flow around the subtropical ridge, and consequently it has increased its forward speed. This prevailing flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a general west to west-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge will induce a more northwestward to north-northwestward track over the open Atlantic Ocean. The track guidance is very consistent with this solution mainly for the next 3 days. Thereafter, the confidence in the track forecast decreases as the guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the westernmost ECMWF and the easternmost HWFI. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA, which has had great skill so far this year. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 13.8N 24.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.9N 29.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.8N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THOSE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.8, -24.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 611 WTNT31 KNHC 312032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 24.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 24.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected for the next two or three days. On the forecast track, the depression will be passing just south of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday. The depression should then be moving over the open eastern Atlantic on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Cabo Verde Islands is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Winds should subside on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 607 FONT11 KNHC 312032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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