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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-31 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 029 WTNT21 KNHC 312032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 29.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 31.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 24.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
2018-08-28 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 20:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 21:34:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 17.5, -112.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 216 WTPZ31 KNHC 282031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 112.5W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 112.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest thereafter. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or on Wednesday, and a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 229 FOPZ11 KNHC 282031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 24 59(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 1 22(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 1 22(23) 6(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 19(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 4(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) 1(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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