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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-15 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 191 WTPZ44 KNHC 150238 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure area that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has acquired enough organized deep convection for the system to be declared a tropical depression. Although the convection had waned a little during the day, recent satellite imagery indicates that convection near the well-defined center has begun to increase and that outer banding features in the western semicircle have been improving during the past few hours. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. For the next 72 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward or slightly south of due west along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge that is located to the north of the depression. The ridge is expected to weaken by 96 hours as a mid-latitude low/trough currently located off the coast of southern California digs southward and then westward during the forecast period. This pattern should allow the cyclone to move west-northward into the weakness in the ridge and start gaining latitude. For this initial forecast of the system, the NHC track lies close to a blend of the consensus track models HCCA and TVCE. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less for the next 72 hours or so, with a further decrease on days 4 and 5 when the system moves underneath and/or develops an upper-level anticyclone, conditions that typically favor significant intensification. However, since the circulation envelope is currently elongated northeast-to-southwest, it will take a couple of days for the system to become more symmetrical, which could then enhance the strengthening process. By that time, however, sea- surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will be marginal for significant intensification to occur. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is indicated in this first intensity forecast, which closely follows the HCCA intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-15 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 10.9, -121.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-08-15 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 913 WTPZ34 KNHC 150238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 121.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 121.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion over the open Pacific Ocean is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next three days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and reach hurricane strength on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-15 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 879 FOPZ14 KNHC 150238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 32(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 10N 125W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 13(43) 1(44) X(44) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 2(33) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 26(57) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-15 04:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 541 WTPZ24 KNHC 150237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 121.2W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 121.2W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 120.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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