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Summary for Subtropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-15 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Five was located near 37.6, -45.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 1
2018-08-15 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 921 WTNT35 KNHC 150837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.6N 45.6W ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Five was located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression is expected to become a subtropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-15 10:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 645 WTNT25 KNHC 150836 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2018-08-15 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:36:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:36:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-15 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 131 WTPZ44 KNHC 150834 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a little stronger. The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies closest to the HCCA and ICON models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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