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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-15 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 133 FOPZ14 KNHC 150834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 15 40(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 10N 125W 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 30(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 6(40) X(40) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 1(30) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 12(50) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-15 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 10.8, -122.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-15 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 828 WTPZ34 KNHC 150834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 122.3W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 122.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion over the open Pacific Ocean is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next three days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by late Thursday or Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-08-15 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 827 WTPZ24 KNHC 150834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 122.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 122.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 121.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2018-08-15 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 02:40:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 03:25:31 GMT
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