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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-26 10:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 795 FOPZ15 KNHC 260838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X 9( 9) 45(54) 5(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 52(72) 3(75) 1(76) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 3(43) X(43) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 36(50) 10(60) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 611 WTPZ25 KNHC 260838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-15 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 684 WTNT45 KNHC 150839 TCDAT5 Subtropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center. Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in their lifetimes. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening. The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days. The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4 kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Depression Five Graphics
2018-08-15 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:38:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:38:30 GMT
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subtropical depression
Subtropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-15 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 226 FONT15 KNHC 150837 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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depression
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