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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-08-18 16:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 035 FOPZ14 KNHC 181450 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 53(55) 27(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 70(75) 10(85) X(85) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 10(52) X(52) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) X(32) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 4(31) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 22(59) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)

2018-08-18 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CATEGORY-4 HURRICANE LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 the center of Lane was located near 12.3, -138.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 15

2018-08-18 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 041 WTPZ34 KNHC 181450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 ...CATEGORY-4 HURRICANE LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 138.2W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 138.2 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion between west and west-northwest with a small decrease in forward speed is expected during the entire forecast period. Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-08-18 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 042 WTPZ24 KNHC 181450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 138.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 138.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 138.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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