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Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-08-18 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 860 WTPZ24 KNHC 180233 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lane Graphics
2018-08-17 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:35:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:35:07 GMT
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-17 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 131 WTPZ44 KNHC 172033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared imagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly. The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago, and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times. The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a compromise of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-17 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 the center of Lane was located near 11.5, -134.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 12
2018-08-17 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 479 WTPZ34 KNHC 172032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 ...LANE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 134.1W ABOUT 1775 MI...2860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 134.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid intensification is expected for the next 24 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight, and could become a category 4 hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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