je.st
news
Tag: lane
Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 the center of Lane was located near 11.4, -131.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 633 WTPZ34 KNHC 170833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 ...LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 131.4W ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 131.4 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the next few days, and Lane is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady or rapid strengthening is expected for the next 36 to 48 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by Saturday. Little change in strength is expected on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
lane
advisory
Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-08-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 634 WTPZ24 KNHC 170833 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 131.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 131.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
lane
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Lane Graphics
2018-08-17 04:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:45:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:45:29 GMT
Tags: graphics
lane
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-17 04:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 827 WTPZ44 KNHC 170243 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Lane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several spiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having developed. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated somewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air, microwave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and low-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an intensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly closed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center, so the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time. Lanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past 6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the convection having recently wrapped around the north side of the low-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt is expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and west-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a turn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to the north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually lifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models. Now that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature have developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is poised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the next 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and warm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although brief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the intensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a rate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After that, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall fluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in advance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is expected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the intensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast was recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and outflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and oceanic conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.2N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
lane
forecast
Sites : [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] next »