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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-18 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 839 WTPZ44 KNHC 180839 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance. Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high. Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease in the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good, resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-08-18 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 869 FOPZ14 KNHC 180839 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 51(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 16(82) X(82) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 16(48) X(48) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) X(31) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 4(30) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 25(55) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-18 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 the center of Lane was located near 12.1, -137.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 14
2018-08-18 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 561 WTPZ34 KNHC 180838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 137.0W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 137.0 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion between west and west-northwest with a small decrease in forward speed is expected during the entire forecast period. Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today or Sunday, but a gradual weakening is forecast thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-08-18 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 541 WTPZ24 KNHC 180838 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 137.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 137.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 136.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 137.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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