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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 50
2019-09-24 22:47:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242047 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 139.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-24 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:56:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 49
2019-09-24 16:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241454 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours, which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4. Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours). Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2019-09-24 16:54:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-24 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Sep 24 the center of Kiko was located near 17.9, -138.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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