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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 49
2019-09-24 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 138.9W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 138.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A gradual turn from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. It should then degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 49
2019-09-24 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 138.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 138.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-24 10:43:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:43:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:43:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 48
2019-09-24 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead, increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Intensity estimates are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data. Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt. The storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, except adjusted southward on days 2-3. The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and a dry mid-level environment. Guidance tonight has accelerated the transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now showing post-tropical status by 48 hours. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and could be too slow in showing the storm's demise. Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 17.5, -138.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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