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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 44
2019-09-23 10:27:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230827 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-23 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:36:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:36:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 43
2019-09-23 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 519 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged. Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear surrounding environment. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days. Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a little south of the previous forecast. There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory. Kiko should turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the Kiko. Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-23 04:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Sep 22 the center of Kiko was located near 15.5, -134.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 43
2019-09-23 04:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 134.5W ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 134.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west to west-northwest is expected later today followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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