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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2019-09-23 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-23 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -136.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 46

2019-09-23 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 136.5W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur tonight with that motion continuing on Tuesday. A turn to the west is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 46

2019-09-23 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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