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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 07:18:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
850 ABNT20 KNHC 190518 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the Azores. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disturbed weather more than 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through Friday while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 07:15:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
497 ABPZ20 KNHC 190514 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance, and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the southwestern United States on Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing rainfall potential and possible flash flooding in that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 01:55:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
500 ABPZ20 KNHC 182354 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance, and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next few days. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Some of the moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the southwestern United States on Thursday and Friday, enhancing rainfall potential in that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 01:46:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
113 ABNT20 KNHC 182346 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the Azores. A large area of disturbed weather has developed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through Friday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-18 19:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
653 ABPZ20 KNHC 181742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for greater organization, the large size of the system and interaction with land should inhibit the development potential of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. The risk of mudlslides and flash flooding may increase as the system tracks northward into northwestern Mexico through Thursday. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of weak low pressure within an elongated trough is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Carbin/Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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