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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-13 07:13:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
714 ABNT20 KNHC 130513 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and on Subtropical Storm Joyce, located a little less than a 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A trough of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although associated shower activity remains limited, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression before the system reaches the western Gulf coast on Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-13 01:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
201 ABNT20 KNHC 122335 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Joyce, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-13 01:12:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
284 ABPZ20 KNHC 122312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure appears to have formed about 100 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, however the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not changed much in organization since earlier today. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development of this system is possible over the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly toward the west-southwest away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-12 19:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
927 ABPZ20 KNHC 121750 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west of southwestern Mexico. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development of this system is possible over the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-12 19:24:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
432 ABNT20 KNHC 121724 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Satellite images indicate that a strong area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles west-southwest of the Azores is rapidly becoming better organized and a subtropical or tropical storm appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later today or tonight. The low is forecast to move toward the southwest for the next couple of days, and then turn to the northeast behind Hurricane Helene. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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