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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 07:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 150545 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward at about 10 mph close to or over the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala on Tuesday, and across southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings are likely going to be required for a portion of that area on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a surface trough. Some development of this system is possible in a few days while the system drifts southward or eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142333 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next day or so, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur later this week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located about 750 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although this system continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for additional development during the next day or so while it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile when the wave approaches the Windward Islands and further development is not anticipated after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142333 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico. By late this week, proximity to land could inhibit further development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Tuesday, and into southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system in case tropical cyclone warnings are required for portions of theses areas later tonight or on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 19:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141747 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Guatemala and Mexico. By late this week, proximity to land could inhibit further development. Heavy rainfall that is currently occurring across Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Tuesday, and into southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 19:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity is showing increasing signs of organization. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some further organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of this system over the next day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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