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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
510 ABNT20 KNHC 132343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening, satellite imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once again. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorm over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, and any development of this system over the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-14 01:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 132341 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains broad and elongated without a well-defined center, according to recent satellite-derived wind data. Upper-level winds are increasing over this system, and the chances for significant development continue to decrease as the low moves slowly north-northeastward. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-13 19:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131751 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system, has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development by midweek. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over most of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and much of Central America. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which will inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and strong gusty winds to near gale force in the northern portion of the wave. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-13 19:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131741 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California remains broad and elongated. Although the window of opportunity for development is decreasing, a tropical depression could still form by tonight while the system moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. On Monday, however, additional development is not anticipated due to cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall across the southern Baja California peninsula today and continuing into Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-13 13:50:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131149 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south of Nova Scotia, Canada. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward toward Central America, and some development is possible if the low remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of western Africa. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward over the next day or so and emerge off the coast of Africa later this afternoon. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some additional development to occur during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong upper-level winds should prevent additional development by midweek. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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